10 NFL Bets You Should Take For The Divisional Round

Hey there!

I hope you’ve had a great start to your 2025!

With the fantasy season coming to a close let’s shift our focus to some playoff betting the next few weeks.

But don’t worry - the fantasy analysis will be back real soon as we head into NFL Free Agency & The NFL Draft!

For now let’s take a look at the best bets for this weekend’s Divisional Round games:

#10 Travis Kelce MORE THAN 50.5 yards

He’s over this in 13 straight playoff games & has at least 70 yards in all these contests.

Now he faces the Texans - who play Cover 4 & Cover 6 at a Top 5 rate. In similar matchups – Kelce averages 58 yards…

#9 Amon-Ra St. Brown MORE THAN 6.5 catches

He’s had 6+ catches in 4 straight games.

St. Brown now plays the Commanders – who play the 6th highest rate of man coverage. In similar matchups - Amon-Ra averages 7.7 catches…

#8 Joe Mixon MORE THAN 2.5 catches

He averages 4.9 targets per game as an underdog this season.

This week – Mixon is a 8.5 point underdog against the Chiefs & KC allows 3.5 receptions per game to opposing RBs…

#7 Brian Robinson MORE THAN 8.5 rush attempts

He’s over this in 80% of his games - including all 5 of his games as an underdog.

This matters because the Commanders are 10-point underdogs this week. As a big underdog this year – Robinson still averages 13.5 rush attempts...

#6 Samaje Perine LESS THAN 1.5 catches

He ranks 3rd on the Chiefs in RB snaps the past 2 months.

And now he’s a big favorite – making it less likely he earns checkdown passes. In 2 similar spots this year – he averages just 1 catch…

#5 Patrick Mahomes Longest Rush MORE THAN 11.5 yards

He’s had a 10+ yard run in 4 straight games.

And now Mahomes faces the Texans Top 10 pass rush. In similar matchups – he scrambles 83% more & averages a long run of 15 yards…

#4 Khalil Shakir MORE THAN 4.5 catches

He earned 6 catches last week & Shakir averages over 5 catches per game this year.

This week he faces the Ravens - who play a lot of single-high coverage. In similar matchups – Shakir averages 5.2 catches…

#3 Dalton Schultz MORE THAN 30.5 yards

The Texans are 8.5 point underdogs against the Chiefs.

As big underdogs this year – Houston throws 25% more times per game. And in these contests – Schultz averages 35 yards on 30% more targets per game…

#2 John Metchie MORE THAN 25.5 yards

He saw a season-high 8 targets last week despite the Texans leading the entire 2nd half.

But now they are 8.5 point underdogs against the Chiefs. In 3 similar spots this year – Metchie averages 41 yards…

#1 Dalton Kincaid MORE THAN 27.5 yards

He’s topped this number in in 71% of his completed starts.

Now he faces the Ravens as a home underdog – expect more passing than usual for Buffalo. In 4 games as an underdog this year – Kincaid averages 42 yards…

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See you soon!

Sal